Expected Value in Matched Betting

Intermediate•4 min•Fundamentals

What ‘value’ means

Value is the expected profit from an offer after costs (qualifying losses, commission, rollover). It's not a hunch, it's the average outcome if you repeated the same offer many times.

EV (quick formulas you'll use)

Qualifier only: EV = − Qualifying Loss.

Free bet: EV ≈ (Free Bet × Retention) − Qualifying Loss on the trigger.

Refund/insurance (refund in free bet): EV ≈ (Refund × Refund Retention × Probability of Refund) − Qualifying Loss.

Wagering bonuses: EV ≈ Bonus − (Turnover × Average House Edge). ‘House edge’ depends on the match ratings you can achieve.

Keep qualifying losses small

Close back/lay prices reduce the qualifying loss and raise EV. Pick liquid markets so your lay bet matches immediately at your intended odds.

Avoid markets you can’t lay or with poor liquidity.

Mini examples

Worked numbers (simple)

A) £20 free bet

Assume retention 80%, trigger QL £0.50 → EV = (20 × 0.80) − 0.50 = £15.50.

B) Qualifier only

£25 stake at 98% rating → QL ≈ £0.50 → EV = −£0.50 (acceptable if it unlocks a free bet worth more).

C) Refund if Team X win (refund £10 in free bet)

Estimated probability Team X win = 30%; refund retention 80%; QL £1.20 → EV = (10 × 0.80 × 0.30) − 1.20 = +£1.20.

Quick checklist before you commit

Pre-bet checks

Can you lay the market? (availability & exchange rules).

Is the qualifying loss acceptably low for the reward?

Have you included exchange commission in the calculator?

Read terms: min odds, expiry, wagering, excluded markets, stake contributions.

Frequently Asked Questions

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